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Analysis of GDP outcome Colombia 2018 | Economy



The Danish revealed that the Colombian economy grew 2.7% during 2018, with an expansion of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of that year.

Read: (The Colombian economy grew by 2.7% in 2018)

Mauricio Hernández, economist at BBVA Research, says the GDP result released on Thursday shows that the dynamics of recovery remain at a very gradual but persistent pace, especially in the components of investment and, to a lesser extent, in private consumption.

"Therefore, in 2019 domestic demand will continue to be the main support for growth and we maintain our forecast of an expansion of 3.0% in the GDP of 2019," adds Hernández.

For this year, the tendency of construction will be key, since there seems to be reasons to believe that they will maintain their recovery path. "According to our scenario, buildings will continue to be led by low-income homes and by infrastructure works at the end of municipal and departmental governments," he explains.

The economist of BBVA adds that industrial confidence has returned to be positive in January, which seems to reflect that it will continue its path of expansion: high levels of use of installed capacity, recovery of the food industry associated with higher internal demand and tax incentives that received in the Financing Act approved in 2018. "That is, jointly construction and industry could lead to a return on investment at prices
of growth above GDP in 2019, "emphasizes Hernández.

Regarding the projections for this year, he argues that the data known on Thursday were in line with our forecast for the fourth quarter. Construction is recovering, a key factor for accelerating the growth we expect in 2019. The industry has consolidated a number
positive in 2018, which joins other indicators in this sector that show that manufacturing activity is recovering.

The BBVA economist points out that private consumption shows a significant breakthrough in spending on durable goods, another factor that will be key in the acceleration of domestic spending in 2019 and will soon decelerate public consumption, a component that will continue to have lower expansions in 2019, as expected for us

"In general, we keep our estimate of GDP growth of 3.0%
in 2019, improving the record of 2.7% in 2018, "he concludes.

"THE GROWTH OF 2018 was not satisfied"

Jorge Armando Rodríguez, Dean of the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the National University, warns that although the number of growth is better than in previous years, in short, "it can not be considered satisfactory."

At the regional level, it was surprised by the good news of the GDP per capita of Santander, while Bogotá remains the largest economy at the regional level.

Mentioned that there was a certain dynamism in the services sector or even in the orange economy, but industry and agriculture did not do it
They showed good results.

Rodriguez emphasizes that, although exports were very poor, imports were high, which shows that there is a growth in the current account deficit of the balance of payments that must be taken into account.

The dean of the economy of the National University believes that the government forecast for this year to grow at 3.5% is a bit high and not easy, especially because the circumstances of the world economy are not favorable.

Ensures that for a greater growth we must work on investments in infrastructure, education and health, attacking structural problems such as low productivity and aggregate demand in the short term.

LARGEST RECOVERY OF THE SPECIFIC

Alright With Carlos Sepúlveda, dean of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Rosario, the recovery is much higher than expected because we must take into account that the growth of 2017 decreased from 1.8% to 1.4%.

For 2018, the recovery is homogeneous, according to Sepúlveda, with the recovery of sectors such as industry, commerce, information and communications and public expense. "Also worth noting is the gross capital formation that increased by 3.5% last year," he adds.

The Dean of the University of Rosario explains that this is because Colombia has a fairly stable economic performance, which does not depend on a single government, And the beginning of the new government has resolved certain investment expectations that impact on the growth and expense of consumers.

Ensures that the ideal is that this period of economic recovery continues during this 2019 over 3.0% and, hopefully, will reach 3.5%.

Among the risks for this year are the credit rating of the country and the expectations of consumers that float considerably.

THE RESULT OF THE GDP IS POSITIVE

For Julián Arévalo, Dean of the Faculty of Economics of the Externado University, the data of growth published by Dane confirm the positive trend that the country has shown since 2016, although we are still far from being increasing like the previous ones reached the fall of the prices of oil, This result, without a doubt, is positive.

"This coincides with the climate of confidence that consumers have expressed in recent surveys, where there is an improvement in all socioeconomic levels. This increase in consumer confidence is reflected in the growth of consumer spending that was 3.9%, " says Arevalo.

The dean of the economy of the Externado, emphasizes that given the relationship between the different areas of life in the country, It is particularly important to manage with attention the political issues that are currently so sensitive, in particular the crisis in Venezuela; The adverse results on this front may impair confidence and affect economic activity economically.

GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE MODEST

Camilo Pérez, director of economic studies at Banco de Bogotá, says that "the pace of growth is still modest because we have to take into account that there are adjustments in the previous figures that somehow diminish the optimism about how good the 2018 figure was."


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