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US growth is close to the goal of Donald Trump in 2018



US growth, which grew stronger than expected in the last quarter, reached the 3% target set by President Donald Trump in 2018.

According to data from the Department of Commerce on Thursday, the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States registered 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since 2015, after 2.2% in 2017. returns to 2005 to have a higher rate.

"Our economy has never been better. This is a country that has never done so well," said President Trump when he stopped in Alaska after his return from Vietnam.

"This is what I call a year for growth of 3%," said the economic adviser of CNBC, Larry Kudlow, while Donald Trump has promised an expansion of 3% even more, for several years.

"This means that policies are working, such as lower taxes, deregulation and commercial reform," said Kudlow, citing some emblematic measures that the Republican president wished.

The strength of last year's growth was effectively driven by the fiscal stimulus of the Trump administration with fiscal cuts and defense spending increases in particular.

"This acceleration is not a surprise given the fiscal stimulus introduced last year," said Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics.

Only in the fourth quarter, the world economy grew by 2.6% year-on-year, according to the first calculation of the Ministry's revisions.

This exceeds the average projection of analysts (2.3%) although it represents a marked slowdown compared to the third quarter expansion (3.4%).

The government's "shutdown", which partially closed administrative services from December 22 to January 25 due to a carelessness about the wall financing that Donald Trump wants to build on the southern border with Mexico, had a limited negative impact.

White House optimism

The department estimates that cuts in services rendered by civil servants cost the growth of the last quarter by one tenth percent.

The figure for the last quarter of 2018, which is released one month later (due to "shutdown") while the first quarter of 2019 is already well advanced, shows a slowdown in the growth of consumption, the locomotive of growth.

US spending rose 2.8% from 3.5% three months earlier, a pace that remained strong.

Among the good surprises that commercial warfare is in the middle, exports fell sharply (-4.9%) from July to September after the introduction of punitive tariffs between China and the United States recovered. From October to December (+ 1.6%). In December, China began to buy American soy again.

Another positive factor again recovered the business investment (+ 3.9%) and there was a rebound in the recovery of inventories.

"In short, the slowdown in growth is much lower than expected, but now it's on the move," said Jim O & S;

By 2019, however, the White House still expects a 3% expansion, as Kevin Hassett, an economic advisor at the White House, was recently told.

"The economic outlook is very strong," said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, interviewed from London at the CNBC on Thursday. If there is a slowdown in 2019, "there is nothing to worry about," he added, emphasizing that it is due to the "shutdown" of January, which will weaken the team's performance. first trimester

Most economists, however, fear a strong effort under the effect of the weakening of the global economy. The Central Bank of the United States expects growth of 2.3% this year for the United States.

"The US economy grew at a robust pace in 2018. By 2019, my projections are minor, but it's still solid," said Fed vice president Richard Clarida on Thursday.


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