Sunday , November 29 2020

As Israel goes to the elections on Tuesday

The Israelis go to the polls this Tuesday, April 9, choosing a new national government. As the only American-style democracy in the Middle East, Israelis are a universe apart from all their border neighbors. And you can bet on your savings of farm and life that Israel has built great and beautiful border walls – and they work!

To the north of Lebanon, Israel borders on the Hezbollah Shiite Muslim terrorist. In the northeast, on the other side of the heights of the Golan of Israel, butcher Bashar al-Assad and his civil war forever, full of poisonous gas attacks against his population, his five million refugees spread across Turkey and Europe, Iranians trying to embed weapons and manpower, and several riders who compete for pieces. To the south, the Hamas terrorist government now consumes all of Gaza. To the east, the so-called "Palestinian Authority", headed by the life-long terrorist Abu Mazen (known as Mahmoud Abbas), a denounce and dictator of the Holocaust who is now in the fourteenth year of the mandate of four years in which he was elected in 2005.

Butchers, killers, all of them. In fact, the "Palestinian Authority" still pays annuities and lifelong bonuses to families of condemned terrorists who have assassinated or detonated a bomb in some place. Until President Trump closed that space, the United States helped pay these paid annuities for murder. Now the decadent European Union only pays for it, since the cowards that go to these countries are at the mercy of Arab Muslim voters in their house.

The outgoing government has fallen, mainly in two disputes. At the same time, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman of the largely Russian / Ukrainian-immigrant party he created disliked Prime Minister Benjamin ("Bibi") the Netanyahu government was not hitting most of the contingent Hamas terrorist strikes and attacks with missiles from Gaza.

In the same way, the Minister of Education, Naftali Bennett, displeased himself and founded The New Right Party, hoping to become a new, more difficult Ministry of Defense. (Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu is serving in double capacity as Minister of Temporary Defense).

The parties of the previous coalition also failed to agree on the divisive problem of military service exemptions granted to full-time adult yeshiva students.

These disputes have caused the outgoing government to fall, forcing these new elections. It is possible to be expected that the same parties end up forming the new coalition of the government and that the same problems that separate them will remain. Think of the plot of the 1993 film "Marmota's Day. Here's the campaign you've lost:

1. Mr. Security and Smartphone

The majority of Israelis, including their detractors, give Netanyahu high ratings to understand security problems and strengthen the position of Israel on the world stage. The left in Europe and America does not like it, but that is the left. No leader of Israel can direct that nation correctly while heading to the slags of the European Union, the Irish-Galician Robert (and not Beto) or Rourkes, Elizabeth Warrens and other types that will not even condemn the enemy Jews in their own party or appear at an AIPAC conference. Also, Bibi learned to destroy the authors of Jews such as Bernie Sanders and George Soros, pseudo-Jews such as Tom Steyer and Diane Feinstein, and self-destructive Jewish groups like J Street that send emotions to the legs Washington Post e New York Times The columnists and their "journalists" miners to quote anti-Israel to include in articles.

Over the years, the American educator Netanyahu has found that a large number of conservative American Christians in certain Catholic and evangelical communities are the best friends of Israel, along with the Orthodox Jews of the United States, while the other Jews who are in bed with the Democrats Liberals are a waste. of his time and of Israel. It is correct; they really are.

The main opposition to Netanyahu comes from the retired general Benny Gantz in the center-left. Gantz has campaigned with the premise that, as a former military general, it can offer an even more expert leadership in security issues. The campaign often addressed questions about the effectiveness of a general who was, and supporters said it was excellent and their opponents point to their various failures.

But the real Joker came when it was announced that the Iranian Mullahs somehow pirated the Gantz smartphone. Can you imagine The rage of terror detection has led to the most determined effort to erase Israel from the map, both in words and in actions, hacking the personal data of the boy who promises to show Israel a true security experience. The news of the Iranian hack led to weeks of generalized speculation about what was on Gantz's phone. Military secrets Clandestine codes Imminent plans? Brides?

This last preoccupation had its own life for the married Gantz, even after the woman was next to him, by preoccupation if the Iranians have information that they can use to blackmail him.

2. Russian collusion

Netanyahu spent last month masterfully demonstrating the aggregate impact of his years on the world stage. Although Gantz promised to forge good relations with the United States, Netanyahu was in Washington, DC the day President Trump signed his formal statement that the United States will later recognize the Golan Heights as an integral part of Israel. A few days before, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Israel, visiting the western wall in East Jerusalem accompanied by Bibi, and became the first government official in the history of any country to visit that sacred site while being accompanied by a government official Israeli.

Then the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, came to Israel, visited the Wall with Netanyahu, and announced that Brazil will open its first government office in Jerusalem as the first step to possibly transfer its Israeli embassy there. Meanwhile, despite being countermanded by the president of his country, Romanian Prime Minister Viorica Dancila has declared that his country will transfer the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem.

It's not a bad month for Netanyahu as the elections are fired.

So, less than a week before the election, the whole country was emotionally appalled by the news that the war hero Zachary Baumel, who had fallen during the 1982 War in Lebanon, had been found in Syria after a 37-year search.

As the determination of America in the seven decades to bring the bodies of war heroes that fell during the Korean War back to the United States, Israel's national conscience does not rest until it recovers all these remains from enemy lands. As the country has experienced a deeply emotional national event in recent days during the reinterpretation of Baumel, the word appeared that Russian President Vladimir Putin had played an important role so that his forces, now in Syria, locate and return the remains. Netanyahu was in Russia on Thursday to meet Putin, thanks to him and be photographed with him, although he polished the state of Bibi on the virtual eve of the elections.

3. Weed the Living / Atlas Toked

Because dozens of parties compete in the race, the rules of Israel disqualify any party that obtains less than 3.25% (the "limit") of the final vote. A party, the Zehut party (Identity) of Moshe Feiglin, was pointing below the threshold, destined for oblivion. Feiglin, a former member of Likud, defends strong lines to respond to Arab terrorism and defends the annexation of Israel and Samaria (the "West Bank") to Israel, as it did with East Jerusalem and the Golan. He is also a strong supporter of several libertarian economic principles, wanting to move away from the last vestiges of socialism that dominated Israel particularly between 1948 and 1977. Although Israel dramatically changed towards the Western capitalist principles during the last quarter century, an economic earthquake launched by When Netanyahu served as Finance Minister of Israel under former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, there are still vestiges of this swamp. Feiglin was below the 3.25% threshold.

Soon it began to concentrate in a part less noticed of its agenda of libertario style: to legalize the marijuana. For several past cycles, a legalization party for marijuana, the "Green Party", unleashedly competed and their votes were regularly lost and discarded because they never reached the threshold, although they offered free marijuana to campaign donors. This time they did not present roles to compete (they are possibly too stoned to notice the presentation deadlines?).

Feiglin came in and took possession of the legalization of weeds. During the night his polling numbers jumped below the threshold above him. If you have those numbers – and if your voters are not too stoned to lose election day – it could end up with 4-6 seats, which could constitute the balance of power if the rest of the religious-right coalition of Likud is in the range from 57-59 seats, along with the center-left Arab coalition-Benny Gantz who could also land in these figures.

Netanyahu hates Feiglin and Feiglin hates Netanyahu more. The Orthodox parties Haredi "old world" opposes legalizing weeds – and probably arise with 11-13 seats. In addition, not only Feiglin demands the legalization of the pot, but also requires the Ministry of Finance to implement its libertarian principles. However, Moshe Kahlon, another former member of Likud Knesset, whose small center-right Kulanu party is running on a conservative platform that focuses on helping the low-income and underprivileged class, also demands the Ministry of Finance and will earn 4 seats or just lose or threshold and end. Kahlon promised not to ally with any government that offers Feiglin to the Ministry of Finance.

4. Do you want to talk about investigating President Trump? Well, investigate this!

Among all other things, there are four separate criminal investigations under way, all aimed at bringing down Netanyahu. In one of them, he is accused of helping a rich Israeli, Arnon Milchan, whose Regency Enterprises has produced several successful American films (including "LA Confidential", "The Revenant" and "Mr. and Mrs. Smith") to get his American visa again after Obama and Kerry withdrew him. That is part of what an Israeli Prime Minister does. The accusation is that the rich thanked him later by sending expensive Bibi champagne and cigarettes at high prices worth more than $ 250,000. Bribe So it's called Case 1000.

In another case, Netanyahu's accused of meeting secretly with the editor of a newspaper that always attacks him and offers to advance a bill in Parliament that economically affects one of the competing newspapers if that editor would change their editorial line. The thing is that when the bill was introduced, Netanyahu and his Likud voted versus and the bill failed. A third case is a variation of this topic.

Several leading legal legal experts, including Prof. Alan Dershowitz, denounced the investigations, explaining how the policy works and is that the voters, not the judges, are judged.

The fourth, Case 3000, is more serious than it sounds and involves several associates of Netanyahu, but there was no connection with Netanyahu. In this, he alleges that when Israel decided to acquire its sixth dolphin class submarine so its navy fleet would protect Israeli energy exploration in the Arabian Sea from seizures, bribes exchanged hands so that decision makers ordered the submarine of ThyssenKrupp , a German shipowner. In addition, presumably, Netanyahu gave his agreement to the German manufacturer privately to sell a submarine similar to Egypt. Did it? If he did, was it wrong? Did you get cash? Netanyahu and his supporters deny all allegations. One of his opponents accused him of "betrayal".

In Israel, instead of a large jury, the Attorney General conducts an investigation unilaterally to determine if something deserves allegations from the trial. In three of four cases so far (still not in the submarine), the attorney general unilaterally decided that some charges could be worthwhile. Under the "accusation" system of Israel, the attorney general meets privately in private with the defendant's legal team to hear yours side of the story. If they persuade him to leave him, there is no accusation. If they fail, report an accusation. Once again, an accusation does not mean guilt – just that there is enough to deserve a fair trial instead of simply dismissing the accusations definitively.

Throughout the campaign, these allegations have been pending of Netanyahu, since the Israelis balance their leadership skills at home and in the world, their supposed ethical inaccuracies, if they simply feel it's time to change and if any of the opposite candidates offer the the exchange rate you want.

5. Benny Gantz's Deal with Yair Lapid

In order for Benny Gantz to suppose a serious challenge to Netanyahu's Likud, Gantz had to participate in tons of horse trade. His newly formed Resilience Party was not very well. Alongside him, General Moshe Ya'alon, a former Defense Minister of Likud, withdrew from Likud and formed his own party, Telem, which sent in worse than Gantz. The two decided to join forces and invited a retired general third party, Gabi Ashkenazi. They were still cheeky, but they improved in unison.

At that time, they decided to merge with a leader of the center-left opposition party, Yair Lapid, a former journalist, a TV and a finance minister. Together, they finally found a formula that placed them on the neck of Likud in the polls. However, Lapid did not agree to merge unless the new party nominated him as his prime minister candidate, while the three retired generals insisted instead of Gantz in the first place. In their engagement, they finally agreed that Gantz would be the prime minister in the first two years of the four-year term, with Lapid as Foreign Minister and Ya & # 39; alon as Minister of Defense. Later, two years later, Lapid would be the prime minister with Gantz as Minister of Defense.

In the vote, a good piece of central-left voters for that slate, the "Blue and White" party, would prefer that Gantz be the only major candidate for all four years, without a rotation at the top. However, the agreement to alternate is fixed, and the vote on Tuesday proves it.

6. Israeli interrogation: bias and error marches

The challenge of the Israeli polls is that, almost always, the surveys underestimate the good that the conservatives of the religious right will do. In part, the Israeli dominant media are extremely leftist. In part, the country has a million Jews who emigrated Russian and Ukrainian from the former Soviet Union who fiercely hate Communism, but are afraid of expressing their intentions to vote polls because of their previous experiences in the United States with Izvestia, Pravda, and the Gulag. In the same way, many other Israelis remember the three decades after the founding of the country in 1948 when the left Socialist Labor Party dominated Israeli life, and did not trust traditional leftist media.

So far, it seems that Gantz-Lapid's "Blue & White" party will land with 30 or more seats, and that Likud will receive 28 or less. Both Orthodox parties Haredi of the "old world" seem to be on the way to dial 11-13 seats, and the most modern orthodox religious Zionist parties along with the new right of Bennett will probably count just over 12 seats. So it brings the center-conservative coalition Likud to approximately 50-52 seats.

If the Liberman Russian party has 4-5 seats, Kahlon's center-right match for the economic subclass reaches 4-5, and if the fever-marijuana-Judea and Samaria Feiglin party gets 4-5, that would give to the center-right-religious of the Likud coalition the clear majority, although it will include a mega-head for Netanyahu so that all the natural allies of Likud get together, given their internal conflicts.

In order for the lion to lie peacefully with the lamb, it usually takes one of the two phenomena: (i) or the time of Messianic peace on earth, or (ii) a frightening assault of forty days in a coffer of Noah where survival requires taking "For the Parties in conflict, the presence of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and all other Lovelies at the borders is at least as motivating as the flood for everyone to do well until one of them overthrows the government.

But there is a kicker: Each Israeli national survey usually has an error margin of three percent more or less. Remember that any conflicting party that receives less than 3.25% of the total votes is out, and all of its votes fall. Therefore, if the game Liberman or Kahlon's or Feiglin, which is now pollinating around 4-5 percent, is very well within the margin of error, they will be eliminated from the calculation. Although his death can find other similar parts that collect these lost seats, these seats can also go to Left, depending on how the numbers are shaken.

7. Prediction

It seems that Bibi's Likud can tie or stay second, two or more seats behind Gantz's Blue & White, but that the combined set of small religious and conservative parties will give the center-right-side corridor a solid chance of Form a government coalition of 64-66 seats. However, this coalition will be wavering, with many internal contradictions in nuances of difference, which will ultimately become exaggerated and intensified as the coalition continues for two years. If Netanyahu has just been accused, obviously, the left will require immediate resignation and his main opponents within his own party, who wait for years to succeed, will join the choir, further destabilizing a new coalition.

Oh, democracy!

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