Just a week after attending what was seen largely as an "anti-Iran" conference in Warsaw earlier this month, Jared Kushner, first adviser to US President Donald Trump, embarked on a special diplomatic trip in the Middle East to promote and raise its peace plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Not surprisingly, in his tour of the region, he took the special EE representative. UU. For Iran Brian Hook.
Warsaw's meeting and Kushner's Middle East trip reflect what seems to be a key foreign policy pillar of the Trump administration that links the long-awaited "deal of the century" with the formation of an Arab-Israeli alliance anti-Iran.
The expectations of the White House are that the Arabs close the agreement of Kushner, normalize the relations with the Israelis and work with them to arrest Iran. Therefore, while many observers saw the Warsaw conference as a failure, as they did not convince the European allies to fully respond to the policies of the anti-Iranian regime of the United States. The Trump Administration considered it a success, bringing together Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and representatives from several Arab countries at the same table.
However, this strategy of mystical foreign policy, for the Middle East, ignores the important realities on the ground and is, therefore, condemned to fail.
A challenging Iran
Since moving to the White House in January 2017, Trump has become a point to systematically undo Iran's policies that its predecessor has set in motion.
President Barack Obama believed that the United States should not face Iran in the name of Arab allies and sought to engage in Tehran. His administration increased pressure on international sanctions and at the same time prompted the dialogue.
Between 2014 and 2016, EE. UU. And Iran has tacitly worked to fight the common threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levante (ISIL or ISIS) supporting the Iraqi and Lebanon governments and avoiding confrontation in Syria. The commitment effort with Iran culminated in the Joint Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), which obviously disliked Israel and Saudi Arabia.
After Trump took power, he withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated hard sanctions on Iran, trying to pressure Teheran into concessions in its ballistic missile program and in its regional activities. But up to now, climbing only made Iran more challenging.
The Iranian regime has made it clear that it is not willing to negotiate under the current terms. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently said that his regime was talking to the U.S. UU. In the current context it is like "going kneeling before the enemy".
Despite the escalation of the Trump administration against Iran, Obama's commitment rules of the Obama era remain in force in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where the US. UU. They continue to avoid direct confrontation with Iranian forces and proxies.
However, the ongoing psychological warfare nourishes paranoia in Tehran, which increases the risk of a wrong calculation. If Washington and Tehran are still pushing the envelope, their proxies would be those who pay the price.
An accustomed Iranian regime could easily become a spoil for US policies in the Middle East. He could motivate his assets in Gaza to act against Israel or force the hands of Iraqi and Lebanese governments to take action against the interests of the United States.
Iranian subversive activity can not only weaken United States allies in the region but also sabotage the efforts of the United States to move forward in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.
A tremendous effort of Arab-Israeli normalization
Trump also reversed the long-standing American policy on the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Its administration is now pushing to break a basic principle of Arab policy, which links normalization with Israel to an Israeli-Palestinian Jewish accord that recognizes a Palestinian viable state, provides for the withdrawal of Israel to the 1967 borders and establishes the state from Jerusalem The Arab allies of the United States want an agreement that meets these basic requirements; Anything would be difficult to sell at home.
Arab leaders remain uncomfortable with official normalization with Israel as the Arab public continues to be sensitive to the idea that they are approaching Israel. Popular riots can easily erupt in the entire Arab world if Arab leaders support an Israeli-Palestinian agreement perceived as defective.
Recognizing this danger, recently the Saudi king Salman Mohammed bin Salmanand restored Riyadh's position for a long time over the Palestinian problem. This post was transmitted in an interview on February 13 by former Saudi intelligence commander Prince Turki bin Faisal al-Saud, with Israeli Channel 13, which implied that Saudi Arabia hopes to open arms to Israel if and when it justifies the Palestinians . Palestine's portfolio of his son, Prince heir
The other Arab leaders in risk faced a premature normalization with Israel and the Trump administration may not be willing to go beyond the words and sanctions to stop Iran in the region.
A Palestinian takeoff
However, the central challenge for Arab-Israeli normalization and the construction of anti-Iranian coalitions remains the Palestinian issue.
Jared Kushner has launched a peace agreement that could be revealed in April after the Israeli general election. The so-called "century agreement" is possibly the first attempt to resolve the conflict in which the Palestinian side was not informed or consulted.
The interesting thing about this plan is his vision of Palestinian policy. After Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, the Bush administration's policy was to punish the range by blocking all aid while helping the Palestinian Authority to show a model of how the West Bank can prosper when it complies with international standards and accepts negotiations with Israel.
Trump reverses this approach by punishing the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank for refusing to accept the "deal of the century" after transferring the Embassy of Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
At the same time, the White House seduces Hamas with the financing of major economic projects in Gaza, which, like the approach of the Bush administration, foster Palestinian divisions instead of strengthening the Palestinian unit.
Trump needs a unified Palestinian front to put an approval seal on the peace plan his son proposes, but both Fatah and Hamas are investing in the division between the West Bank and Gaza and will see a possible reunification under the agreement to the detriment of their interests.
Although the full provisions of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, details already known to the public indicate that it will not maintain the best interests of the Palestinians.
In an interview for the Emirati Sky News Arabia channel issued on February 25, Kushner said: "You can eliminate the border and have peace and less fear of terror, it could have a freer flow of goods, a flow of people more free and that It would create many opportunities. "
What its cryptic statement means is that the weaker Palestinian economy will be further integrated into the Israeli, making Palestinians still more dependent on the Israeli state, which will maintain full control of security and, therefore, their ability to repress the Palestinian political dissent.
Thus, Trump is linking the Arab-Israeli normalization and the deterrence of Iran to an Israeli-Palestinian agreement in terms that would institutionalize Israeli control over the Palestinian territories and would have disastrous consequences for the Palestinians.
The Palestinians pay the Arab-Israeli alliance, probably with problems for Arab leaders on the way. It could undermine the deterrence of Tehran by increasing the popularity of the Iranian regime in the region and delegitimizing the already weakened Arab regimes.
In this regard, the Trump administration's strategy of linking a Palestinian Israeli agreement between Israel and Arab Arabia to stop Iran can undermine these two American goals in the Middle East and could even suffer from the allies and interests of the region.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.