Saturday , October 23 2021

"It does not change but we are discussing"



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Manovra, Choose: It does not change but we are discussing

The economic maneuver of Italy "does not change. We are arguing: we must respond to the Commission on November 13. It's not like I'm responding here. "The Economy Minister says this Giovanni Tria, answering a question at the end of the Eurogroup in Brussels. "The commitment – he explained – was not to be with the Eurogroup I explained the maneuverdata and strategy. He took note of that. The interview and the dialogue will be with the Commission, which is the interlocutor at this stage. We respond within the deadlines set for the Commission: There is no conflict or commitment", emphasize.

"We hope that propagation"Between the yields of BTP and Bund" it will go down when our strategy is better understood and when we better explain our data and strategies, "observes." Let me continue the dialogue with the Commission, "he adds, continues Tria," he invited to continue the dialogue with the Commission. "As for public debt," it is written in our maneuver, in our estimates that the debt will fall in the three years. "But the market expects changes in maneuver:" It's not the market nor me. We will see, "replied the minister.


The sources of the Ministry explain this Italy intends to abide by the European rules on public accounts, including those planned to deal with the deviations of the same rules, the deviations that have already occurred in the past and which are foreseen, as an eventuality, by the same regulatory framework. And with the European Commission is negotiating to see in what terms the excessive deficit procedure linked to the debt will come, if it could not be avoided.

On 13 November, the Commission awaits a revised budget planning document, in addition to the answer on the factors relevant to the preparation of the report according to article 126.3 on public debt, the first formal step in the procedure of excessive deficit related to the debt. The Eurogroup meeting was calm, in a climate characterized by the tranquility of the tones, in which all explained their reasons. The Minister of Economy explained the reasons for the maneuver, the other ministers heard and it was decided that, essentially, the message is that the Eurogroup agrees with the fact that we must respect the rules and have a dialogue with the European Commission.

Italy also accepts that the rules and the need for dialogue with the Commission should be respected. The deviation of the medium-term objective, which the Commission considers unpublished, in the Italian vision is not so overwhelming: our country, underlined, intends to continue to respect the rules, including those planned to manage the deviations of the same rules, the deviations that have already been They have been produced and are provided for in the Stability Pact. Italy, finally, It does not come out of the euro nor the European rules.

Now you begin a process to try to find a compromise, which allows you to check the situation in all respects, first regarding government bond yields, which is a priority for the country, trying to bring propagation below current levels. With Europe we do not want to break anything; on the contrary, according to the sources, There will be a commitment. It is a process in progress and soon we will know how the negotiation will take place from November 13th: a solution will be sought in which neither of the two sing or appear to produce, but what allows disable tensions. On 13 November, in any case, Italy will be answerable to the Commission. We will try to reach a good conclusion; There is no guarantee that it would be successful, but the attempt will be made.

However, the dialogue with the European Commission is in full swing. The deviation anticipated by Italy, in the government's vision, is not so different from those that occurred in the past in other countries: on the deviation of commitments will be discussed, in accordance with the rules laid down by the Stability Pact, with the intention of reaching an agreement. The deviation was explicitly acknowledged in the letter sent by the MEF, but Italy, underlined, did not give the Commission an outlet or exit message, saying that the deviation is this period. The rules themselves provide for the possibility of a deviation and provide the tools to handle the same; Therefore, it will be necessary to see how to solve the problem in the context of the EU rules.

The Eurogroup, in any case, today has been quite compact in giving the message that the rules of the Stability Pact have to be respected, as has also been the statements of the various ministers and that we must find a way for the Commission and Italy to leave this situation. There is an invitation to find an agreement between the Commission and Italy; In any case, as can be deduced from the declarations made at the entrance, the desire of the ministers of the euro zone is to review the maneuver of Italy. Finally, Tria did not explicitly say to her colleagues that the containment of propagation is the priority for Italy, but it is a matter of fact, taking into account the direct repercussions that the increase in the yield of government bonds and the related depreciation are in the banks' balance sheets Italians, a fundamental channel for the distribution of capital to companies in a country that is and continues to focus on banking.

in The stability pact is always foreseen for a certain degree of flexibility: the rules will not change, of course, but if the Italian government will make changes to the draft budget document that the Commission expects in a modified version before November 13, there will be margins, for which one learns, to continue applying the flexibility that It has been granted to Italy in the past. Flexibility, in particular, applies to unexpected events, such as migratory flows and natural disasters such as floods. Regulation 1466/97 states that "in the event that an unusual event beyond the control of the Member State that has a substantial impact on the financial position (…), Member States may temporarily obtain the permit to deviate from the adjustment path" . This is a clause designed for events such as natural disasters and used in the past. This exceptional treatment is linked to certain conditions: among other things, additional expenditure must be directly related to the unusual event and deviations can only be granted temporarily.

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