Sunday , June 13 2021

What do the EU economic forecasts say about Italy?

The forecasts are the ones EU Commission for our country. L & # 39;ItalyIn fact, with 1.1% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019, the latter is confirmed growth throughout Europe. Even o Great Britain despite the related difficulties Brexit It is better than us, standing at 1.3%. Brussels also looked up estimates on the deficit Italian: in 2018, of 1.7% expected in spring, rises to 1.9% and goes down to 2.9% in 2019, "because of the measures planned" as citizen income, Fornero Reformation e public investments which "will significantly increase the expense". By 2020, the ceiling will reach 3%, reaching 3.1%. The EU specifies that this figure does not take into account the safeguard clause, that is, the increase in VAT, taking into account "systematic sterilization". Also the IMF Reiterates its estimates in Italy. In the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, the International Monetary Fund expects a growth of 1.2% for 2018, 1.0% for 2019 and 0.9% for 2020. In 2017 Italy grew by 1.5%.


The EU plans to "underestimate the positive impact of our" maneuver the economic and structural reforms. We move forward with our estimates of public finances, the growth that will increase, and the debt and deficit that will decrease. There is no reason to question the validity and sustainability of our forecasts. That is why we consider that any other type of scenario in the Italian public accounts is absolutely unlikely, "said the prime minister Giuseppe Conte with a note On the other hand Giovanni Tria he responds pointing his finger in Brussels: "The European Commission forecasts for the Italian deficit are in clear contrast to those of the Italian government and derive from an analysis of the non-attentive and partial Budget planning document (Dpb), budget law and the performance of Italian public accounts, despite the information and clarifications provided by Italy, "stresses the Minister of Economy, lamenting what he defines as" technical failure of the Commission» However, he adds Tria, "will not influence the continuation of the constructive dialogue with the Commission itself in which the government is committed. The fact is that the Parliament The Italian authorized a maximum deficit of 2.4% for 2019 that the government, therefore, was committed to respect ».


On the Italian deficit, commented the commissioner of Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici"Our forecasts are different from those of the government, due to our more conservative growth forecasts, the forecasts on the higher costs, especially for the expenses of greater interest. These forecasts are made from the budget planning document received on 16 October, but the situation may be different when the "government" response arrives. "Standards must be respected, the Commission must apply them and can not do anything other than act within the framework. of the rules, "added Mopscovici." I hope a common solution, I want a dialogue with Italy, I have always been flexible when a country has met natural disasters, for example, but there are rules and we have to respect them. "He defended the Commission's" impartiality "and his work, and that's why that the estimates of Brussels, other than the Italian government, "should not be given the least controversy." Moscovici reiterated that "Italy was not a particular treatment, but that it had the same from all other countries," so that " are the usual differences between forecasts ".


"Because of the deterioration of the budget," writes the EU Commission in its forecasts, "combined with the negative risks to growth, the high debt The Italian will remain stable around 131% throughout the forecast period »2018, 2019 and 2020. And again:« After a solid growth in 2017, the Italian economy slowed down in the first half of this year due to weakening & # 39;exports and the industrial production The recovery of exports and a greater public expense will favor moderate growth but the associated risk is not deficit, along with interests Major and considerable risk of disadvantage, it jeopardizes the reduction of high debt. "In some countries highly debt in the euro zone, the document continues," especially in Italy, the vicious circle between banks and sovereign debt could resurface in case of doubts about the quality and sustainability of the public accounts, which in an environment of total reassessment of risks and an increase in the costs of refinancing, could raise concerns about financial stability and weigh economic activity. "

Eyes placed on the spotting

"In Europe," writes the chief Dg Ecfin of the EU Commission Marco Buti in the foreword to the forecasts of autumn, "the uncertainty about the forecasts of public accounts in Italy led to higher interests propagationAnd the interaction between sovereign debt and the banking sector remains a concern. " At the same time, however, he emphasized the Brussels document, in spite of the significant increase in the spread by Italy due to the budgetary situation, "at the moment no infection has been observed in other Member States" (read also: Quotation quotes and disclosure on November 8, 2018).


Not much better in the rest of theEurozone: Brussels In fact, it revises the growth estimates from 2019 to 1.9% from 2% in summer and forecasts by 1.7% in 2020, while confirming 2.1% for 2018 after 2.4 % in 2017. "The uncertainty and the risks, both internal and external, are increasing and weigh in on the pace of economic activity," warns the vice president of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis. According to the EU estimates, until the structural deficit progresses: 1.8% this year rises to 3% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020. In the spring it was expected to be 1.7% in 2018 and 2% in 2019 "The risks to the forecasts of the deficit include higher rates in government bonds, a saving lower than expected cost review and a greater expense due to the possible renewal of public sector contracts, "says the Commission." On the contrary, the possible activation of the safeguard clause in 2020 and the possible lower costs in the new measures represent additional risks in the budgetary forecasts. "

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