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PiS budget deficit. Treasure TFI asks about the future



According to the TFI Treasury strategies, in the "Market Perspectives 2019" public finances report, although they are currently in good condition, they may worry this year. – In the situation of GDP growth by 5 percent. one might expect to see a budget surplus. What aspect will public finances have when economic growth is reduced to 3%? – they ask rhetorically.

There are economists, such as, for example, chief economist at BCC prof. Stanisław Gomułka, who repeats that On many occasions the government must strive for a budget surplus, in order to save for more difficult times. The same opinion is the Treasurer of the Treasury of TFI that, in his latest report "Market Outlook 2019" write that with a growth of 5% of GDP, the Ministry of Finance should be proud of the budget balance at the end of this year.

PiS budget deficit. Treasure TFI asks about the future

– Unlike many other developing countries, the Polish economy does not have a significant negative impact on the deterioration of business sentiment. In English, such economies as Poland are called "goldlilocks", which in the best Polish translation can mean "the land of milk and flowing honey"no matter how grotesque he does not sound. The large GDP dynamics, combined with low inflation and the excellent public financial situation, caused the Polish debt market to be one of the strongest last year, according to analysts at the bottom.

According to them, as it has been for many years, A positive factor that has fueled our economy has been the flow of EU funds. They have supported poor investments so far.

– Paradoxically, public finances may have some anxiety. Despite the fact that its condition is excellent, the debt-to-GDP ratio fell nominal for the first time and the deficit could reach 2018 in the 1% area. GDP In the situation of GDP growth by 5 percent. However, one can expect to see a budget surplus. What aspect will public finances have when economic growth is reduced to 3%? – Treasury Treasury Investors Ask.

Earlier, the finance minister, Teresa Czerwińska, said that the budget deficit in 2018 is about PLN 10-11 million.

– However, to remain fair against the economic policy of the government, it should be noted that we must improve the budget situation to a certain extent to the tightening of the tax system, and prosperity is also based on fiscal stimulation, including through the famous "500 plus" – add.

Polish economy in 2019. What next?

According to the managers, this year the government will still have a fiscal stimulus field, which may be related to the April elections to the European Parliament and in autumn for the Sejm and the Senate. An advance offers a reduction of the excise tax on electricity, intended to dampen the effects of the approval of new tariffs. In addition, the flow of EU funds this year is likely to reach its peak in the current financing horizon.

"In our base scenario, in which the European economy is still growing, and the commercial wars do not increase, we can count on an economic growth close to 5% also in 2019. In the short term, the factor that hinders the economy will be the labor market, which is increasingly based on import work "- said the director of debt investments and alternative products, the management of debt funds in Skarbiec TFI Grzegorz Zatryb adding :

The measures taken by the German government to attract economic migrants can greatly affect the domestic labor market, especially because the Polish government not only carries out similar measures, but still follows the anti-immigrant policy, making Poland a less and less friendly place for the foreigners

The authors of the report also point out that, although Poland is not a typical emerging market, but here too the escalation of commercial warfare is a significant risk, especially through links with the export economies of the euro area. Unlike many other developing countries, the Polish economy does not see a significant negative impact on the deterioration of business sentiment. The exception is the strange PMI, which for two months has shown that Poland has entered into a recession in a situation where GDP growth in the last two quarters of 2018 has exceeded 5%.

Treasure Trouble

Talking about the Treasury, we can not fail to mention the TFI problems in relation to the publications of "Puls Biznesu". According to the discoveries, newspapers talk about who controls the Treasury of TFI, which manages PLN 4 billion more than 100,000. The Poles have taken beer producer "Perła" associated with businessman Józef Hubert Gierowski.

In addition, the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority is examining changes in the participation of the TFI Treasury. After the publication of "Puls Biznesu" about the owner and business revolution chart, the brokerage houses received official letters that asked: accounts are kept for companies: Perła – Browary Lubelskie and Lubelski Chmiel Investment. The KNF rejects further explanations, explaining the statutory professional secret.

The price of treasury shares in the last 10 days decreased by 17 percent.

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