Sunday , April 11 2021

The growth of Hong Kong cools; Cloudy prospects for commercial warfare, increases in speeds



HONG KONG: Hong Kong's economic growth slowed further in the third quarter and it is expected to face additional winds in the midst of commercial tensions between Beijing and Washington and higher interest rates, which will pose a wider risk to Asian and Asian financial growth. next year.

The city's economy grew 2.9 percent in the third quarter of a year earlier, down 3.5 percent in the April-June quarter.

This marks the second consecutive slowdown in growth of 4.6 percent in the first quarter, which was the strongest performance in the city in almost seven years.

The economy is expected to be under increased pressure due to prolonged trade tensions between China and the U. UU. And higher interest rates, which saw real estate prices cool after a bullish stamp lasting more than two years.

"The impacts on foreign trade in Hong Kong have started to stagnate and are likely to become more apparent in the short term," the government said in a statement.

The pace of the third quarter was in line with the average forecast of five economists of 2.9 percent growth. The government revised its forecast for 2018 growth throughout the year to 3.2 percent from 3-4 percent.

Several banks have also cut growth forecasts this year in the midst of concerns about the impact of the commercial war.

Standard Chartered reduced its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 3 percent of 3.4 percent.

The economy expanded 0.1 percent in the third quarter of the previous three months, seasonally adjusted, compared to the growth of 0.2 percent in the second quarter.

COMMERCIAL TENSIONS

The economy dependent on trade in the financial economy is vulnerable to the commercial tensions that are about to launch between the United States and China, Hong Kong's largest trading partner.

In August, the city's trade and economic development secretary told Reuters that about 7% of Hong Kong's total exports could be reached if the United States imposed a new round of commercial rates in China.

The slowdown reaches as Hong Kong retail sales grew at a weaker pace in 15 months of September, while investments and visitor expenses were affected by a fall in the stock of reference index (fall of 14 per cent one hundred this year) and a weaker yuan.

As one of the most open and free economies in the world, Hong Kong's growth depends heavily on capital flows, trade, cars and investments from China.

Total exports of goods grew 5.0 percent in real terms in the third quarter a year earlier, after growing 4.6 percent in the second quarter.

The number of Chinese mainland visitors to the city grew 3.9 percent in September, the slowest growth rate so far in 2018, shaken in part by the impact of Typhoon Mangkhut.

Analysts are optimistic, however, that tourist arrivals from mainland China will remain strong in the long run as the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau highway will take the continental tourist numbers.


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